Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: after falling below 120,000, it shows signs of fatigue. The hourly chart MACD turning bearish indicates depth pullback risk.

The price of Bitcoin has continued to pull back after reaching a historical high of $124,000, currently sitting below $118,000 and losing the 100-hour moving average. Technical indicators are sending warning signals: ) The hourly chart has broken below the key descending channel support at $116,200; 2) The MACD indicator is accelerating downward in the bear zone; 3) The RSI has fallen below the 50 midline. If it cannot reclaim the $118,500 resistance (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), BTC may further dip to the $115,000 or even $113,500 support. Long positions need to hold the recent low at $115,800, and a breakout above $118,500 could alleviate short-term downward pressure, with targets looking at $119,200 and $120,000 (50% Fibonacci level).

Technical Breakdown: Channel Lost + Moving Averages Fallen, Bears Control the Situation

The correction trend initiated by Bitcoin from the high point of $124,420 continues, with key technical breakdowns intensifying bearish sentiment:

1. Channel breakdown: BTC/USD (Gate data) hourly chart confirms a fall below the descending channel support line of $116,200, with a weakening technical structure.
2. Moving Average Break: The price continues to operate below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the short-term trend dominated by short positions.
3. Low-level consolidation: The current price is consolidating near $115,800 (recent pullback low), below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from $124,420 to $115,800 (approximately $118,000).

Key Resistance: $118,500 is the tipping point for long positions and short positions.

Bitcoin's rebound faces significant resistance:

• Initial resistance: $116,850 (current recent barrier)
• Key resistance one: $118,000 (23.6% Fibonacci level + psychological level)
• Key resistance two: $118,500 (a strong breakout is needed to reverse the short-term decline) Bullish scenario: If the daily closing effectively stands above $118,500, it is expected that:

1. Test the $119,200 resistance
2. Attack the $120,000 mark (which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, corresponding to the downtrend from 124,420 to 115,800)
3. Challenge a higher target of $121,500

Downside Risk: 115,800 Support Defense Battle Beware of Deep Pullback

If the rebound fails to break through the resistance zone of $118,000-$118,500, it may trigger a new round of fall:

• Immediate support: $115,800 (recent low, a break will confirm acceleration to the downside)
• Main support 1: $115,000 (key psychological and technical support level)
• Main support 2: $113,500
• Next support: $112,500
• Strong support bottom line: $110,000 (a dip below this may trigger a deeper pullback)

Technical Indicators Resonance Bearish

• Hourly MACD: Located in the bear market zone (negative value area) and downward momentum accelerates, strengthening the bearish signal.
• Hourly chart RSI: fell below the neutral level of 50, indicating that short-term short positions are dominant. Key support levels: $115,800 → $115,000 → $113,500 Key resistance levels: $118,000 → $118,500 → $119,200

Conclusion

Bitcoin has encountered resistance and fell back from its historical high, showing a clear bearish dominance in the technical outlook. The key channel on the hourly chart has broken, moving averages have failed, and the bearish resonance of MACD/RSI indicates that the $115,800 support is facing severe testing. If this defense line fails, it could quickly dip towards the $115,000 and even $113,500 area. To reverse the bearish trend, long positions need to strongly recover the $118,500 (23.6% Fibonacci level) as the primary target; only after breaking through can short-term selling pressure ease and restart the push towards the $120,000 mark. Traders should closely monitor the breakout direction in the $115,800-$118,500 range and prepare appropriate risk control.