Let's talk about the market (August 26, 2025) #优质打榜内容# #加密市场回调#
After many modifications in the afternoon, it can finally be released. The market of long and short double kills has come again, and operating in this situation is indeed quite difficult. In the past few days, we also lost two trades, both with small position stop losses. When we do contracts, we must not go against the market stubbornly. It's not scary to be wrong; the most frightening thing is to be rigid in our thinking, fantasizing every day about being a constant winner.
Although I am not opening positions right now, I still need to stick to doing market analysis every day. The reasons for this wave of decline, in my opinion, are caused by the following factors.
1. Reason for the crash: Giant whales sold off: About 24,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges and sold off on a large scale, causing a sharp price drop within 20 minutes, breaking through key technical support levels.
2. Chain liquidation: The downward trend triggers forced liquidation of high-leverage long positions, with the market liquidation scale between $550 million and $840 million, exacerbating the price decline and forming a vicious cycle.
3. ETF Outflow: BTC ETF net inflow turns negative, and some institutions begin to shift towards a short-term bearish outlook on the crypto market.
4. ETH's plunge: The unified margin account led to forced liquidations of ETH longs when BTC plummeted, and the resilience of ETH during BTC's decline actually acted as a "shield" for BTC. Market makers reducing their BTC and ETH positions further exacerbated the decline of ETH.
Every time there is a downturn, someone says the bull market is over and the bear market has arrived. The truth is that every time the market dips, institutions are buying the dip. Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $443.9 million, while Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $219.1 million. So it's still early to talk about a bull top; the sharp declines will continue to force old OGs to hand over their chips. This process can be understood as a pump and a counteraction. Once the chips are sufficiently exchanged, the market will continue to rise.
Let's talk about a detailed analysis of BTC: Currently, the Bitcoin trend is very clear, with a bearish pattern. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the spot market at this time. There is a possibility of further retracement with increased selling volume. BTC is crazily testing the weekly support line. In the image below, the red line's body slightly piercing through can be accepted, and there is still a possibility of a rebound here. However, if the body of the candlestick breaks below, it is likely that we will be looking at a bottom around 100K in the next phase. (See Figure 1)
As of 19:30, the Bitcoin price has fallen below the downward trend line and the previous high support line, confirming a downward trend on the daily chart. A short-term stabilization has occurred after the decline. The increase is on lower volume, and the height of the increase will not be too high. Buy at 109500, add to the position at 109000, set a stop loss at 108500, and aim for around 111500. Only short-term trades, do not change the pattern. (Refer to Figure 2)
Let’s talk about ETH again: the new high has attracted more buyers + a double top has formed, and the ETH trend basically aligns with what I expected. However, the lowest point is lower than I anticipated. Currently, there may be a rebound at a smaller scale, and intraday short-term buying could be considered. The positions that allow me to sleep well when going long are around 4100 and 3900 (see chart 3).
A: After the 4670 support level was broken, a very common pullback occurred. This pullback failing to rise is a good position for a second short entry.
B: Currently auto-bouncing, but it is very likely to continue dropping to around 4100. It is recommended to enter the market with a split position when buying the dip, and to set a stop loss if it falls below 4000.
Overall, ETH is still in a bullish structure. Cherish the opportunity for another dip; the pullback is to prepare for breaking through 5000 and attacking 5550-5880 later.
Finally, let's talk about altcoins. During the decline, BTC's market share will rise again, and altcoins will drop faster than BTC. Today, altcoins are all in the green, and the imagined altcoin season is actually an altcoin sacrifice. This is not surprising; when good news is fully priced in, it becomes bad news. The manipulators have played this trick countless times.
We estimate that there will be another wave of increases in altcoins before the interest rate cut in September. It will only be after the interest rate cut expectations are realized that we will see a real pullback, which will occur in October. This round also has a basic consensus among altcoin investors, which is that small coins cannot outperform large coins. Large coins are relatively safer than small coins, so everyone should consider the leading targets. Although these leading targets have high market capitalizations, they really increase when they rise, while small coins may not necessarily rise.
Can we still buy the dip now? We believe it is possible. For spot trading, we suggest buying the dip on altcoins: SOL, LTC, DOGE, PENDLE, PEPE, ADA, PENGU, etc. This time, don't focus on the big picture; trade short-term, make some profits and run.
After a big drop, bottom fishing often presents a rebound opportunity of 20%-50% for the next surge. When we enter the crypto space, we must seize the trends; we are not here to earn a salary, but to make a fortune. The trend is right in front of you; if you don't seize it and miss this wave, you might have to wait a few more months.
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