'Death cross' warning and continuous downtrend - Will XRP lose 2 USD?

Despite some positive news regarding prices, XRP is currently under strong bearish pressure. The coin has fallen more than 2% in the last 24 hours and has dropped 8.8% over the past week. Recent technical indicators continue to show a prolonged downtrend, with the consecutive appearance of "death crosses" on the EMA lines, reflecting a marked weakening in XRP's price momentum.

Despite the positive announcements, such as an AI company from China investing 300 million dollars in XRP, or VivoPower successfully raising 121 million dollars for the XRP Treasury fund with the support of a Saudi royal, the current technical factors still indicate that the sellers are dominant and tightly controlling the market.

XRP is approaching the oversold zone

The relative strength index (RSI) of XRP has fallen sharply, currently at 37.8, down from a high of 48.68 in the past 24 hours, marking a clear weakening of short-term momentum.

This decline reflects increased selling pressure, bringing XRP close to the oversold threshold without completely breaking it. Notably, the RSI of XRP has not dropped below 30 since April 7, indicating that despite recent corrections being quite strong, they have not yet led to a deep oversold condition – a common sign in more severe market pullbacks.

With the current RSI near 30, XRP is approaching a potential exhaustion point in a bearish trend. If buying pressure enters the market, the price could stabilize or even recover.

The RSI of XRP on the 4-hour chart | Source: TradingViewRSI is a commonly used momentum indicator, ranging from 0 to 100, aimed at measuring the speed and amplitude of price movements. When the RSI exceeds 70, it indicates overbought conditions and may lead to a bear market, while an index below 30 typically signals oversold conditions and the potential for a price recovery.

At the moment, with XRP oscillating just above the oversold threshold, the market is at a critical crossroads: the downtrend may continue, pushing the RSI below 30, drawing the attention of technical traders expecting a rebound. Conversely, if the market stabilizes at current levels, this could prevent further losses.

With XRP's RSI not falling below 30 for nearly two months, if the price drops below that level currently, the market may witness new volatility—attracting investors looking for cheap opportunities, or accelerating the downtrend if the support levels do not hold.

DMI indicates a strong bearish trend as ADX spikes to 44

The Directional Movement Index (DMI) of XRP is showing a significant change in the strength and momentum of the trend, with the ADX rising sharply to 44.7, up from 27 just one day earlier.

The ADX, or Average Directional Index, measures the strength of a trend without indicating a specific direction. Usually, an indicator above 25 indicates a strong trend, and a value above 40 indicates that the momentum of the trend is very strong

When the ADX exceeds 30, it indicates a very strong trend.

The DMI of XRP on the 4-hour chart | Source: TradingViewThe sudden increase of ADX confirms that the current trend is gradually strengthening. However, the direction of that trend is clearly shown through the directional indicators: while the +DI index has fallen sharply to only 5.9, the -DI has surged to 31.4. The widening gap between these two indicators highlights the strong bearish trend that is occurring. The weakening of +DI indicates that bullish momentum is quickly diminishing, while the strong increase of -DI suggests that selling pressure is significantly rising.

With the current -DI significantly surpassing +DI and the confirmation from ADX regarding the strength of this bearish trend, XRP seems to be entering a strong down cycle. Unless there is a sudden reversal in buying demand, the current situation indicates that bearish pressure will continue in the near future, reinforcing the negative signals indicated by other indicators such as RSI.

XRP may fall below $2

Technical indicators, especially the EMA lines, are showing a continuous emergence of "death crosses" in recent times, highlighting strong bearish pressure as XRP struggles to surpass the $2.5 mark. These bearish crossovers, when the short-term EMA line crosses below the long-term EMA line, reflect a weakening trend and XRP's inability to regain upward momentum. This indicates that the market is still in a downtrend and the short-term recovery is under threat.

If the bearish pressure continues, XRP may retest the support level of $2.07. If this support level does not hold, the price could fall below $2 – a price that XRP has not reached since April 8. A drop below $2 would be a sign of a significant change in market sentiment and could accelerate the downward trend further.

XRP price chart 4 hours | Source: TradingViewAlthough the current outlook is quite gloomy, the situation can change if buying pressure returns and creates a strong reversal. In that case, the $2.26 mark will become an important resistance level that must be surpassed to confirm the recovery. If the price can break this level, the next resistance levels will be $2.36, $2.47, and even $2.65. However, to invalidate the current bearish structure, these resistance levels need to be surpassed with strong trading volume and active participation from the buyers.

Until then, the consecutive appearance of "death cross" remains a clear warning that bearish pressure is prevailing, and this situation will continue unless there is a strong recovery from the buyers.

Lilly