Ark Invest Explains Bitcoin Forecast of $1.5 Million Driven by Rise of Institutions

Ark Invest is setting the stage for a historic bitcoin bull run, forecasting that the price target for BTC in 2030 will skyrocket to 1.5 million dollars, driven by the unstoppable momentum of institutions. Ark Invest outlines a booming forecast for Bitcoin Ark Investment Management (Ark Invest) explained its bitcoin forecast in an article published on April 23, based on the Big Ideas 2025 report The paper analyzes the company's modeling methodology and assumptions behind three 2030 price scenarios, including the total market accessible (TAM) expected and penetration rate. The company states: In Ark's Big Ideas 2025 report, we updated the bitcoin price targets for 2030, forecasting the price of bitcoin at the low, base, and bullish prices of approximately $300,000, $710,000, and $1.5 million per bitcoin, respectively.

The article explains that Bitcoin's fixed release schedule will lead to approximately 20.5 million coins in circulation by 2030. Some sources of accumulation have already been highlighted, including institutional investors, participants from emerging markets, government treasuries, corporate cash managers, and Bitcoin-native financial services that are expanding. Ark Invest clarifies that bitcoin may not reach its expected price target if any TAM or penetration rate is not met, noting that risks and limitations could prevent their forecasts from becoming reality.

The allocation of institutions is identified as an important factor, with Ark stating: "Institutional investment contributes 32.7% to the bearish case, 34.3% to the baseline case, and 43.4% to the bullish case." Additionally, the role of bitcoin as an alternative to gold has been detailed: "Digital gold contributes 57.8% to the bearish case, 48.6% to the baseline case, and 35.5% to the bullish case." The article cited geopolitical factors, including President Donald Trump's executive order on March 6 designating bitcoin as part of the U.S. strategic reserve. The article also highlighted examples of companies, such as Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) incorporating bitcoin into their financial strategies. The growing importance of second-layer solutions and the tokenization of BTC is also mentioned. Ark notes, "The native financial services of Bitcoin are an emerging contributing factor to the capital accumulation process," with networks like Lightning and assets such as WBTC expanding functionality. Moreover, Ark has applied a "vivid" metric to effectively adjust the total bitcoin supply, assuming that 60% of the money will remain actively circulating by 2030. Despite the detailed methodology, ARK issued a final warning, "Forecasts are inherently limited and unreliable," emphasizing the speculative nature of future predictions.