The New Taiwan Dollar rose again to the 28 level this morning. Has the Central Bank of Taiwan already lost control?

On July 3, the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) once again appeared at the 28 level, as the US dollar weakened, foreign capital bought more, and export momentum pushed up the exchange rate. Will the Central Bank's intervention and the profit pressure on export-oriented enterprises explode? (Background: The NTD skyrocketed to the 28 level! Export businesses lament, and those holding stablecoins are bleeding...) (Supplementary Background: The violent appreciation of the NTD and the "4,000-word response to public grievances" from the Central Bank: There are not only disadvantages for exports, and the extent is within a reasonable range) Today (3), in the early foreign exchange market, the NTD broke through the 29 NTD barrier against the US dollar within 10 minutes, reaching a high of 28.886 NTD, highlighting the impact of the global dollar weakness and the intertwining of Taiwan's exports and foreign capital momentum. After opening at 29 NTD, the NTD quickly appreciated, becoming the currency with the largest increase in Asia for the day. Yesterday, the US dollar index fell slightly by 0.03% due to weak US employment data, leading to a general rise in Asian currencies, with the Japanese Yen, Renminbi, and Singapore Dollar all rising together. The weakness of the US dollar provides space for emerging market currencies, and the response of the Taiwan exchange rate is particularly intense. Both exports and capital are simultaneously increasing. Taiwan's semiconductor and technology product exports bring in a significant amount of foreign exchange income, and the demand for foreign exchange from exporters pushes up the NTD. At the same time, the leading semiconductor company TSMC's stock price broke through 1,100 NTD, attracting foreign investment, resulting in a "dual rise" of stocks and exchange rates. The market remains optimistic about US-China trade negotiations and potential tariff exemptions, which also increases capital inflow. TSMC's revenue is mostly denominated in US dollars, and the appreciation compresses the exchange back. Analysis indicates that for every 1% appreciation of the NTD, TSMC's gross profit margin decreases by about 0.4 percentage points. The company has invested about 18 billion USD in hedging, but the hedging itself also increases costs, putting profit margins under pressure. Is the Central Bank balanced? The Central Bank publicly stated that it allows the market to determine the exchange rate and only intervenes when necessary. In May, it entered the market to buy foreign currency, driving foreign exchange reserves to 592.95 billion USD, with a monthly increase of 10.12 billion USD. While this operation can alleviate exchange rate fluctuations, it also brings Taiwan closer to being labeled "currency manipulators" by the United States. Taiwan's life insurance industry holds a large amount of US dollar bonds, and the appreciation of the NTD will amplify exchange losses, forcing the Central Bank to walk a tightrope between export competitiveness, international pressure, and financial stability. Related Reports: Brazil's "Bitcoin Reserve Bill" passed the first review, with 5% foreign exchange reserves (180 billion USD ) buying BTC one step closer. South Korea "abandoning CBDC" turns to private stablecoins, as the Central Bank calls out: the first wave opens to banks, then allows private companies. The violent appreciation of the NTD and the "4,000-word response to public grievances" from the Central Bank: There are not only disadvantages for exports, and the extent is within a reasonable range. <The NTD has risen to the 28 level again this morning. Has the Taiwan Central Bank already been unable to stop it?> This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.