Bitcoin's Logic Analysis for Breaking One Million Dollars in 2028

Global Macro Environment Drives Asset Repricing

• The world is currently entering the phase of the collapse of the dollar-dominated order.
• The continuous expansion of the fiscal deficit and debt in the United States will drive long-term inflation and asset repricing.
• Bitcoin has transformed from a "Nasdaq high Beta asset" to a "hedging tool against the decline of American exceptionalism"
• The Federal Reserve and the Treasury support the market through operations such as treasury bond repurchases, driving a new round of increases in risk assets.

Fiscal policy becomes the main driving force

• The trend of expanding fiscal deficits under the Trump administration is evident.
• The "Make America Great Again" policy will bring about a large-scale fiscal stimulus.
• Government spending continues to increase and is unavoidable, including in areas such as social security, healthcare, and national defense.
• Institutional investors' views on Bitcoin have shifted from high Beta assets to hedging tools.

The 2026 liquidity peak may drive Bitcoin to $250,000

• Bitcoin may reach $250,000 in 2025
• A period of extremely loose monetary policy may occur between 2026 and 2027.
• At that time, various tools such as QE, leverage relaxation, and government bond repurchase may be used simultaneously.
• The market may peak in 2026-2027, and then return to reality.

Bull Market Rotation Logic and Altcoin Season

• After Bitcoin returns to its historical high, funds may rotate to altcoins.
• Bitcoin's dominance may return to the range of 40%-70%.
• After the bull market is established, market risk appetite fully recovers, and funds begin to seek high-risk, high-return assets.

Analysis of Corporate Bitcoin Buying Trends

• More and more companies are imitating MicroStrategy to buy Bitcoin.
• Some investors cannot directly buy Bitcoin, opting instead to invest in stocks of publicly traded companies that hold Bitcoin.
• This trend may gradually fade after the volatility of Bitcoin decreases.

The Changing Correlation Between Bitcoin and Traditional Assets

• Bitcoin and gold are becoming increasingly correlated, starting to decouple from the stock market.
• Bond market volatility has become a key indicator
• Bitcoin may no longer be highly correlated with the Nasdaq as it was in the past.
• Bitcoin is shaking off the "tech stock" label, showing a more independent trend.