The CS Market Fluctuates: The Prosperity and Collapse of In-Game Assets

Recently, some speculators have shifted their focus from Meme coins to skin items in CS games. Those who once sought opportunities in the cryptocurrency market are now paying attention to the price trends of CS:GO items. CS:GO was launched in 2012, and in 2013, it introduced the weapon case and skin system, allowing trading in the market, thus laying the foundation for the CS:GO item economy. After years of development, this market has prospered for more than a decade.

However, in May 2025, the CS item market suddenly collapsed. The item index plummeted by 20% within three days, and the prices of several popular trading varieties were nearly halved, sparking widespread discussion. This scene of market collapse is not unfamiliar to investors who have experienced the volatility of the cryptocurrency market; only this time, they are holding virtual game skins instead of digital currencies.

For a long time, many players have earned stable profits through skin appreciation, but this market turmoil has abruptly halted their "happiness". This hyped market has shown its fragility, as these NFT-like game accessories exhibit volatility similar to certain cryptocurrencies during a fall. So, what factors attracted these investors, and what impact will it bring?

The Perfect Combination of Gaming and Earning

In April 2025, when the meme coin market was becoming stagnant, the CS:GO skin market was unusually active, attracting the attention of many cryptocurrency investors. This can be traced back to the Arms Deal update in 2013, when the game introduced a skin system, allowing players to obtain these graphic overlays that change the appearance of weapons only through random drops.

This "unboxing lottery" model has opened a new era of wealth games. To obtain rare skins, players gradually began to trade spontaneously. The rise of skin trading websites further promoted the prosperity of the market, forming a complete ecosystem that includes players, trading platforms, streamers, resellers, black markets, and data analysis tools.

For most CS:GO players, buying skins was initially just to enhance the gaming experience. A player nicknamed "Mantou" recalled that he originally just wanted to buy some skins to decorate his weapons. For CS:GO players, skins are not just a form of decoration, but more like a social currency; high-quality or rare skins can showcase a player's status in the community, satisfying their vanity.

With a deeper understanding of the market, Mantou found the price increase of skins astonishing. As a college student with limited financial resources, he began to try "flipping skins." Although his first profit was not much, it was enough to make him happy for a few days. For Mantou, buying skins and playing games go hand in hand; he didn't develop a specific trading strategy but bought skins based on his gaming needs.

In fact, the CS:GO game itself and the economy of its created skins indeed promote each other. A well-known KOL believes that the reason the CS:GO skin market can maintain such a lasting wealth effect is closely related to the characteristics of the game itself. As a shooting game, the gameplay of CS:GO is relatively simple and has not changed much over the years. The game developers also frequently stimulate player participation through events, and these factors collectively attract old players to return.

At the same time, the promotion by esports streamers has lowered the entry barrier for new players, constantly attracting fresh talent (mainly college students) to join, bringing incremental growth to the market. Players trade skins out of vanity, while the possibility of making money continuously attracts both new and old players to enter the market, making "play-to-earn" the best footnote for the CS:GO game and the skin economy.

The rapid rise in jewelry prices

The price range of the CS:GO skin market is astonishing, ranging from ordinary skins worth a few yuan to rare treasures worth tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, forming a unique ecosystem. This stratification phenomenon is quite similar to the cryptocurrency market: ordinary skins are like "air coins", while top-tier items such as the Dragon Lore and Butterfly Knife are comparable to well-known projects in the NFT space, with their prices constantly reaching new highs due to scarcity and consensus premium.

A large number of common weapon cases and ordinary quality skins are located at the lower end of the price spectrum, making them affordable and satisfying the basic personalization needs of most players. Accessories in the mid-price range usually cost from tens to hundreds of yuan, and these items often feature better design, a certain level of rarity, or are suitable for more popular weapons.

In the high-end market, prices exhibit exponential growth, with accessories costing several thousand to tens of thousands of RMB not being uncommon. These are usually extremely rare knives, gloves, and those top-tier firearm skins that have legendary status or are exceedingly rare. For example, a brand new skin that records kill counts and comes with rare stickers may have a recommended price of around 130,000 RMB on second-hand platforms. These high-priced items have surpassed the scope of game props and are increasingly seen as collectibles and investment items.

Factors affecting the price of accessories include appearance, wear, rarity, style, the actions of speculators, student holidays, new product releases, and even the influence of streamers. The in-game market and third-party trading websites have also played an important role in shaping the CS:GO skin market.

Although these influencing factors can be analyzed rationally, the fluctuations in the prices of items often come as a surprise. This unpredictability is commonly seen in both the CS:GO item market and the cryptocurrency market. For example, when CS:GO announced its upcoming upgrade to CS2 in 2023, many high-priced skins and rare stickers saw a price increase, but a few months later, when CS2 officially launched, some skins significantly depreciated due to changes in visual effects or adjustments in drop mechanisms, causing many players who bought at high prices to incur losses.

However, the price fluctuations and trading of accessories seem random and free, but they are actually under strict control by the game developers. The entire economic ecosystem surrounding accessories needs to be adjusted according to the rules set by the developers. Developers can regulate all probabilities and the rarity of each skin drop, and can even designate trading channels. The display effects of skins in the game can also change due to game updates, which directly affects the value of accessories.

To some extent, the items in CS:GO are like financial products that can fly, but the strings controlling this "kite" are always in the hands of the developers. In extreme cases, there is even a risk of the "developers suddenly restricting free trade" in the item market. As one player said: "The policy changes of the developers are unpredictable, and in this regard, NFTs may have an advantage."

Similarities Between the Jewelry Market and the Cryptocurrency Market

The investment attributes of accessories and their price fluctuations have made many cryptocurrency investors exclaim: "Isn't this just NFT?!" This comparison is not unfounded, as even the "play-to-earn" effect inadvertently realized by CS:GO coincides with the "play to earn" model pursued by some blockchain game designs.

Although CS:GO skins can be used in the game, this constitutes a difference in practicality compared to NFTs, but in fact, only a small portion can play a role in the game. For the vast young player group, skins carry more complex psychological needs and social significance; they are a concentrated embodiment of the pursuit of appearance, face culture, and identity symbols, which is quite similar to the role NFTs play in certain circles.

In addition to the symbolic attributes of social identity, the two also share similarities in price drivers. The prices of certain items on CS:GO can rise due to their use by streamers and esports players, and this celebrity effect is similar to the endorsement effect of stars in the NFT market.

Coincidentally, after the collapse of the CS:GO skins market, the cryptocurrency and Meme coin markets have shown signs of recovery. Ethereum's 7-day increase is nearly 40%, breaking through $2500, and some well-known Meme coins have also started to rise. Some speculate that funds are flowing between different virtual assets, creating an alternative "vampire effect." Although this correlation is difficult to directly confirm, this coincidence of fund movement has become a topic of conversation among investors.

Opportunities and risks always coexist. Players of CS:GO who were steadily profiting before May now face an unprecedented price collapse. A player who previously earned 50,000 RMB through the appreciation of his items saw it vanish overnight, even turning into a loss of 70,000 RMB. However, having experienced the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, he appeared relatively calm, believing that compared to the previous slow downward trend, this sharp decline, accompanied by decent trading volume, may attract more attention and be beneficial for the long-term recovery of the market.

From Meme coins to CS:GO skins, the speculative stories of the virtual world seem endless. Market sentiment, greed, and fear cycle through different domains. The only constant is that financial freedom remains elusive, and high-position buyers always exist.