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The following are some judgments on personal analysis ideas and entry and exit points for ETH.
1. Trend Judgment: Short-term under pressure, medium to long-term bullish.
Short-term signals (1 hour + daily):
After the price broke through 3900, it encountered resistance at 3920-3940, with long upper shadows appearing on both the daily and 1-hour charts (high point of 3969), accompanied by a decrease in trading volume (for example, daily volume dropped to 190,000 on August 8), indicating significant selling pressure at high levels and a short-term need for a pullback.
Technical indicators are weakening simultaneously: the 1-hour MACD has formed a death cross, the RSI has fallen from overbought, and the daily MACD histogram is decreasing in volume, warranting caution against correction risks.
Medium to long-term signals (daily EMA):
The daily EMA7 (3756) and EMA30 (3491) are widening, showing a bullish arrangement, and the price is still above EMA7. The medium to long-term trend remains unchanged, and there may be a second upward opportunity after a pullback.
2. Buying Logic and Levels: Look for support on pullbacks, accumulate in batches.
Core idea: During short-term pullbacks, rely on key support levels (previous lows, EMA moving averages) to gradually position and manage risk.
Buy point one: 3850 USDT
✅ Support Logic: Near the previous swing low + 1-hour EMA30 (3835), which serves as strong short-term support; if the 1-hour RSI falls back to the oversold zone (≤30), one can consider entering based on rebound signals.
Entry Point 2: 3800
✅ Support Logic: Above the integer level + daily EMA7 (3756), with a 1% gap from the buying point (in line with the gradual accumulation rhythm), further reducing costs.
Stop-loss protection: Set uniformly at 3775 USDT (25 USDT below the entry point), to prevent a false breakout below the key moving average (EMA7) and to control individual trade risk.
3. Selling Logic and Levels: Take profit at resistance levels, beware of false breakouts.
Core idea: Take profits decisively when there is a rebound to the previous resistance zone; if the breakout fails, go short.
Sell point 1: 3940T
✅ Pressure Logic: The resistance zone at the 1-hour level is between 3920-3940, and after the previous high of 3969 with a long upper shadow, it has fallen back. There is significant selling pressure at this position, and short-term rebounds to this level can be taken for profit.
Sell point two: 3970 USDT
✅ Pressure Logic: If it breaks above the previous high of 3969 but the volume is insufficient (such as a decrease in volume on the 1-hour/daily chart), it may be a "false breakout," and one could consider shorting at this position (must be accompanied by MACD divergence or RSI overbought signal).
Short Stop Loss: Set at 3990 USDT (20 USDT above the sell point) to prevent sudden spikes that could trigger losses and protect short position profits.
4. Key Reminder: Resonance of Volume and Signals
Before buying: Observe whether the trading volume continues to shrink during the 1-hour/daily pullback (a shrinking pullback is healthier), and whether indicators such as RSI and MACD show signs of a bottom (e.g., RSI oversold rebound, MACD divergence).
Before selling: If there is a sudden increase in volume when rebounding to the resistance level (such as breaking 3940 with a large volume in 1 hour), you can hold your position temporarily and observe; if the volume decreases while rising, then strictly take profit at the designated level.
Summary: In the short term, focus on "buying dips and taking profits at resistance," while in the medium to long term, do not chase highs until the trend breaks. If the stop-loss level is breached, exit decisively to avoid holding onto losing positions.