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In the Crypto Assets market, the divergence phenomenon of the MACD indicator often indicates important turning points. In 2021, when Bitcoin approached the $70,000 high, the shortening of the MACD red energy bars was a clear warning signal. This top divergence—where the price makes new highs while the energy bars weaken—often foreshadows an impending market reversal.
On the contrary, when the price of LUNA coin plummeted in 2023, a bottom divergence occurred: although the price hit a new low, the green energy bars were much shorter than before. This situation usually indicates a weakening of the downward momentum and may signify the beginning of accumulation.
Recognizing divergence patterns is key: a top divergence is characterized by "new price highs but shorter energy bars," while a bottom divergence is characterized by "new price lows but shorter energy bars." For example, when a well-known meme coin broke through $0.35 last year, the energy bars shortened by 70% compared to previous highs, which was a clear sell signal.
However, relying solely on the MACD golden cross is not reliable. Real opportunities often arise during the secondary golden cross, especially when the MACD on the 30-minute and 4-hour charts crosses upward simultaneously, and there is a noticeable increase in large on-chain transfers. When a well-known public chain token broke through $100 last year, it was after waiting for the secondary golden cross on the 4-hour chart and observing a surge in trading volume that the position was increased.
Strategies summarized from years of trading experience include: focusing on multiple time frames (30-minute for direction, 4-hour for strength assessment, daily for trend confirmation); when a top divergence occurs and large funds are flowing out, consider reducing positions; at bottom divergence, if the long-short ratio in the contract market is below 0.7, it may be a good buying opportunity.
A deep understanding of the changes in the MACD energy bars is essentially interpreting the operational intentions of the market's main players. By continuously observing and analyzing, traders can develop a keen intuition about the market, improving their survival ability in the highly volatile crypto assets market.