The TRON ecosystem is attempting to log in to NASDAQ: Opportunities and risks coexist

Recently, a noteworthy and controversial topic has become the focus of the cryptocurrency circle: the TRON ecosystem is trying to enter NASDAQ through special means. This move is not just a regular business operation, but rather a complex game that integrates cryptocurrency, financial strategies, and even political influence.

TRON and its founder have always given a contradictory impression. On one hand, they have been mired in controversy within the crypto community, such as the USDD de-pegging incident and the TUSD turmoil. On the other hand, the TRON network and the TRX token have developed rapidly, especially as the largest issuance chain for USDT, which has brought considerable profits. This contradiction is key to understanding the listing prospects of TRON.

The Impact of Political Factors

The choice of TRON to push for listing at the current moment is not coincidental, but rather the result of multiple factors working together.

Firstly, this seems to be an imitation of the model of a well-known listed company. The company successfully turned its stock into a tradable crypto asset "proxy" on traditional stock exchanges by incorporating Bitcoin into its balance sheet. TRON clearly hopes to replicate this model, allowing the newly established listed company to become a compliant channel for American investors to access and invest in TRX, attracting a large amount of institutional funds.

However, the most critical factor lies in the current political climate "window period." TRON has been facing regulatory pressure, especially related to lawsuits in 2023. However, four months before the announcement of the merger, this lawsuit was surprisingly "paused." This pause coincided closely with TRON's massive strategic investment in a company associated with a certain political family.

This means that TRON has secured a "safe window" protected by political factors for itself. They must seize this opportunity and complete the listing using the reverse takeover (RTO) method, which is the fastest and has relatively lenient scrutiny. This is because the traditional IPO path, considering the previous allegations, is almost unfeasible.

However, this also buries huge political risks. Once the political winds change, related lawsuits may be reactivated at any time, which could severely impact the newly listed company.

The Essential Differences of Imitation Mode

The core strategy of the newly listed company on TRON is to emulate a well-known company by holding TRX tokens as reserves in the company vault. However, there are fundamental differences and inherent risks involved.

Bitcoin is a widely distributed, decentralized digital commodity with no centralized issuer. In contrast, TRX is an asset created and controlled by a specific entity.

This has led to serious conflicts of interest. When a listed company uses investors' funds to purchase TRX, it is equivalent to using investors' money to buy assets issued by the founder. This creates a dangerous self-reinforcing cycle: when the listed company buys TRX, it can directly support the price of TRX, and the increase in TRX's price will also boost the book value of the company's treasury, while also increasing the value of TRX held by insiders. This structure raises serious concerns about corporate governance and financial management.

The Line Between Success and Failure

To understand the prospects of this newly listed company, we need to distinguish between two types of business that TRON engaged in the past:

1. Successful businesses (such as the TRON chain itself): The reason why TRON can attract a huge trading volume, especially becoming the chain with the largest issuance of USDT, is that it offers extreme "tool value." It meets the user demand for low-cost and high-speed transfers of dollar stablecoins. In this simple peer-to-peer transaction process, the personal reputation of the founder, past controversies, and even the degree of decentralization of the network become less important.

2. Failing or controversial businesses (such as USDD stablecoin, TUSD incident, etc.): These are financial products/trust-based businesses. Their key to success lies in users' high trust in their governance, transparency, and risk management capabilities. However, it is precisely in these areas that TRON's reputation has become a fatal shortcoming.

Insights for Investors

This newly listed stock is essentially closer to the "trust-based business" of TRON's failure, rather than the successful "tool-based business". Investors purchasing this stock are investing in a holding company that is heavily influenced by specific individuals. This requires investors to trust that the management will manage the treasury in a way that maximizes shareholder interests, rather than manipulating the TRX price for the benefit of insiders.

For speculators or hedge funds, this listing undoubtedly presents a high-risk, high-reward speculative opportunity. However, for long-term value investors or institutional funds, the outlook for this stock is fraught with challenges, resembling more of a high-risk bet.

Conclusion

TRON's push for listing is likely a multi-faceted strategy. It is both an imitation of a certain model and a regulatory arbitrage taking advantage of a political window period. However, at its core, it is more likely a "financial performance" aimed at maximizing short-term profits.

Overall, this business packages a successful "tool"—TRON—into a financial product that requires a high degree of "trust." Its future depends less on how good the technology of TRON is, and more on whether the market is ultimately willing to believe—or gamble—that the founder can become a qualified and trustworthy leader of a public company. Based on past records in "trust-based businesses," this is undoubtedly a high-risk gamble.