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According to the latest economic analysis, American investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed may implement three interest rate cuts this year. This forecast is based on observations of weak growth in the U.S. job market.
Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the current monthly increase in employment in the United States has dropped to about 30,000, well below the approximately 80,000 level needed to maintain full employment. They also cautioned that future data revisions are likely to further lower this figure.
Analysts believe that the challenges facing the labor market come not only from the effects of trade and immigration policies but also from the retreat of compensatory hiring waves and the current status of near stagnation in employment growth across most industries.
Although the current unemployment rate remains relatively stable, Goldman Sachs warns that even a slight slowdown in the labor market should be taken seriously. They further point out that if the unemployment rate shows a more pronounced upward trend, the Fed may take more aggressive measures, potentially even cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at once.
Based on these analyses, Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut rates once in September, October, and December. This forecast reflects a cautious attitude towards the outlook of the US economy, while also highlighting the importance of the job market in monetary policy formulation.
As economic data continues to be updated, the market's focus on the Fed's subsequent policy direction will continue to rise. Investors and policymakers will closely monitor changes in the job market to assess the overall health of the U.S. economy and potential risks.