#美联储杰克逊霍尔会议# Looking back at history, the decisions of the Fed have always stirred the nerves of global markets. This time, the Jackson Hole meeting reminds people of the period following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, to save the economy, the Fed adopted unprecedented quantitative easing policies, and interest rates were lowered to historic lows.

Today, Goldman Sachs predicts that there may be three rate cuts this year, which inevitably evokes memories of past scenarios. However, the current economic environment is quite different from that time. Employment data shows a slowdown in growth, with only 30,000 new jobs added each month, far below the 80,000 needed for full employment. This trend is concerning because the health of the job market is often a barometer for the overall economy.

Historically, the Fed has always been cautious when taking action. If they do start to cut interest rates, it is likely because they have seen more concerning economic signals. We need to closely monitor the upcoming data changes, especially the trend in the unemployment rate. A significant rise in the unemployment rate could trigger larger cuts in interest rates, which would have far-reaching effects on the market.

As an investor who has experienced multiple economic cycles, I am well aware that the market is always cyclical. The current situation reminds us to remain vigilant and manage risks effectively. At the same time, crises often harbor opportunities, and the key is to have a long-term vision and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations. Let us learn from history and seek new opportunities in this uncertain era.