Recently, the financial markets have experienced another round of emotional fluctuations. Powell's latest speech is very similar to his statements following the previous CPI data revision and the non-farm payroll report, triggering a new round of speculation in the market regarding the Fed's policy direction.

In recent days, various market news has frequently emerged, seemingly confirming previous predictions: this information is a means of expectation management by the Fed. It is worth noting that the interest rate cut probability displayed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has rapidly climbed from 71% to 85%, and then to 91%, reflecting an increasing optimism among investors regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

However, whether this optimistic sentiment can be sustained remains a question. There is about a month until the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 18, during which market expectations are likely to continue being influenced and adjusted by various factors. After all, the consistency of current interest rate cut expectations has been pushed to a relatively high level, and the Fed may take some measures to balance market expectations and avoid potential risks caused by excessive optimism.

For investors, closely monitoring the speeches of Fed officials, the release of economic data, and changes in the global economic situation will help better grasp market trends and make informed investment decisions.